Carce SyncroSim Package

GitHub release

Evaluating the effects of multiple stressors on caribou

Carce is an open-source SyncroSim Base Package for simulating the cumulative effects of development and climate change on caribou.

The Carce package contains a built-in stochastic multi-model framework for forecasting the cumulative effects of stressors on barren-ground caribou herds, referred to as the Caribou Cumulative Effects (CCE) modeling framework. Built upon the SyncroSim software platform, the CCE modeling framework was developed with the intent of providing users with the tools required to make better-informed management decisions for caribou herds in the face of future uncertainties. As such, the CCE modeling framework contains stochastic submodels, which allows model projections to incorporate uncertainty in model inputs. Within its framework, the CCE accounts for a variety of ungulate stressors including land disturbance, environmental conditions, harvest and natural mortality. These stressors are integrated into several interconnected submodels which make up the CCE modeling framework; a Vegetation/Land Use Change submodel, which forecasts changes in vegetation and land use across a herd’s range over space and time; a Caribou Movement submodel, which projects daily movement of individual caribou across the study area based on historical data; a Body Condition submodel, which projects the body condition of an individual caribou cow (and its newborn calf) as it moves across the range over the course of a single year; and finally, a Population submodel, adapted from the DG-Sim stochastic population model, which operates on an annual time step, projecting the total size of the herd’s population (by sex and age) each year as a function of the current population size, birth rates, natural mortality rates, and harvest levels. The submodels which make up the CCE framework originate from pre-existing published models, all of which contain source code that is freely available.

Caribou Cumulative Effects Overview

To learn more about the Carce package and the CCE modeling framework, visit


This package requires SyncroSim version 2.0.42

How to Install

For more information on Carce, including how to install, see the Getting Started page.

Browse source code at
Report a bug at


Leonardo Frid (Author, maintainer)
Colin Daniel (Author)
Alex Embrey (Author)
Tom Roe (Author)
Robert White (Author)
Don Russell (Author)