Epidemic SyncroSim Package

Model of epidemic infections and deaths

Epidemic is an open-source SyncroSim Base Package that provides a general framework for developing scenario-based stochastic models of future daily epidemic infections and deaths.

The Epidemic package framework has been developed to produce real-time forecasts of COVID-19 infections and deaths that can be rapidly deployed for use anywhere in the world. Built upon the SyncroSim software platform, Epidemic takes as input a time series of real-time reported case and death data along with different modeling approaches for forecasting and scenario analyses. Epidemic uses the latest source control techniques, allowing for continuous adaptions and improvements to be applied to the framework’s underlying models as understanding of COVID-19 evolves over time.

The modeling framework behind Epidemic is general enough that it may be applied to any jurisdiction and any disease. As such, the framework allows decision makers to assess and compare alternative model projections for local accuracy and relevance, thus building confidence over time in their forecasts. Furthermore, the Epidemic framework provides policy makers with the flexibility to introduce their own local “what-if” scenarios regarding the effects of possible future changes to public health measures. The result is a tool that generates locally responsive, meaningful, and ultimately actionable forecasts.

Requirements

This package requires Syncrosim version 2.2.27.

How to Install

Open SyncroSim and select File -> Packages… -> Install…, then select the epidemic package and click OK.

Alternatively, download the latest release from GitHub. Open SyncroSim and select File -> Packages… -> Install From File…, then navigate to the downloaded package file with the extension .ssimpkg.

Getting Started

For more information on Epidemic, including a Quickstart Tutorial, see the Getting Started page.

Links

Browse source code at http://github.com/ApexRMS/epidemic/
Report a bug at http://github.com/ApexRMS/epidemic/issues

Developers

Colin Daniel (Author, maintainer)
Leonardo Frid (Author)
Bronwyn Rayfield (Author)
Alex Embrey (Author)
Shreeram Senthivasan (Author)